Saturday, April 5, 2014

Why Ebola Shouldn't scare you ... too badly

It cracks me up when someone sends me an email, posts on my wall, asking if I heard the news of an outbreak. Me, really? I don’t open up to the morning news, I open up to disaster and biohazard news. I’m watching diligently. If I see something I’ll let you know if you should worry. The latest Ebola outbreak … nah.

Ebola is deadly. Yeah, that’s a fact. It starts out like a really bad head and chest cold, you get fever, chills and then suddenly with all that mucus, you’re now getting hit with the stomach bug. Only, your organs pretty much melt and ooze out your body orifices. Ebola has a kill rate of 90%+.  Yeah, it’s deadly. You’re a goner in under a week. In undeveloped and rural area Ebola can spread like wildfire. In industrial areas they stand a chance to contain it. The most recent case, while it hasn’t surpassed its historical worst, has actually breeched more boundaries. It’s now suspected in Malawi, and now one suspected case in Paris. Which, ok, I’m blaming Paris officials. Knowing damn well, that the incubation period can surpass three weeks (Meaning a person is contagious without symptoms) Why did they only quarantine that plane for twenty-four hours? Seems to me they could have sprinkled a little death around. How many of those people on that plane moved on to other countries?

Ok, even if it hits industrial areas, with quarantine measures above and beyond those in rural villages, the chances of nipping it in the butt are good. It’s not airborne, not yet. Meaning you have to come in contact with the bodily fluids of an infected person. If it starts to rise, it’s as easy as stay indoors, stay safe.

But Ebola doesn’t scare me. Every few years it does this. On average about 7 people die each year of it, outbreaks average from 75-500. To date Ebola has killed 3,000 total. That is all. Your chances of catching Ebola are slim. 

Odds of catching Ebola 1 in 94.6 million.

So deadly as it may be, swipe that fear away, there are other things more scary for you to worry about and you have a better chance of experiencing it. These should ease your mind about Ebola.

The Plague – there are so many variation of this pesky world killer, you gotta love it. While plague, if caught early can be treated, it still has a good 35% fatality rate and is still alive an kicking. Did you know 12 million people died of the plague in China in 1855?  That’s cary considering it wiped out 12 million not that long ago. 75% of the middle age population. Still plague is most prevalent every year between March and June and carried by the Y Pestis and those hideous rodents called rats. Every year the CDC estimates 2000 deaths of plague are reported a year. Without calling it an outbreak.
35 deaths in the US alone.
 Odds of getting and dying from the plague  1 in 3 million

Yellowstone Supervolcano – While some say this won’t happen, increased seismic activity around the park, coupled with fleeing animals … I don’t know. I think we have more chance of it blowing its top than Ebola wiping us out. 
Odds of it Erupting – 1 in 647,000

The Flu – World Health Organization says 10-15% of the population contracts the flu every year. Every
year on average 20,000 people die of the Flu. While that’s less than 1% fatality rate (Unless of course it’s like superflu or Swine) your chances of getting better are great. However you still stand more of a chance of catching a deadly case of the flu than Ebola.
Odd of catching the Flu – 1 in 67
Odds of catching a deadly Flu - 1 in 22,000

Tuberculosis – Although it is treatable and not always deadly it is still deadly. We always seem to forget about this one,. Easily transmitted. People with ‘active’ TB, can sign, cough, sneeze and spread it. It’s that easy. The scariest part is a person  not being treated regularly for TB or who doesn’t know they have it will infect 10 people a year.

It is estimated by CDC and WHO that there are 8.45 million new cases every year and 1.5 deaths. That’s a biggie that people forget about good old TB.

Odds of catching TB – 1 in 840
Odds of dying after getting TB – 1 in 6

Now, see? Ebola doesn’t see that bad, after all, does it.

Thursday, April 3, 2014

Yellowstone, Ebola which will hit harder first?

So while half the world is focusing on the deadly Ebola outbreak, the other half of the world seems to be debating and dismissing what could very well sweep the death toll of the deadly disease under the rug and burying it in news of ash and debris. Not saying the Ebola outbreak isn't something to watch. It is. Thankfully, once a person shows symptoms it moves fast and can be contained. Unfortunately, it can lurk inside an infected person for up to three weeks. While it lurks, the asymptomatic person is contagious. How far can one person take it and spread it?

Frightening enough, we are one airline ticket away from the end of the world.

Or .... a boom away.

If you recall, months back, I blogged about reasons that FEMA was moving all sorts of supplies to District 3. While some speculated that something was going to happen in District 3, I held firm that common sense says, why stock a place that is going to be a disaster area.

I believe District 3 is a prep zone. Possibly a relief area for the mass exodus of people that will be headed east following the eruption of the Yellow Stone Park Supervocalno and other disasters.

I gave Yellowstone as one of my reasons months ago, and supplied the following map to show areas affected by the blast and ash of the volcano. Notice District 3 is fine.

 So what gives lately? Yellowstone is no stranger to seismic activity, yet it recently experienced the biggest quake in over thirty years. While that alone isn’t much add that to the odd springtime exodus of animals leaving the park, just a few days later and people are wondering. Do these animals sense immediate danger and are fleeing for their lives? Or are they merely looking for food. Really, can animals predict disaster? PBS says yes.

I don’t know, if you watch any videos, they seem to be running. And if this was such a normal occurrence, why hasn’t such an exodus of Bison and other animals been documented. It I such a huge and unusual exodus, that Wyoming and Montana are at odds on what to do with the animals that left the park. Surely if this was normal, those two states would be butting heads.

We need to be diligent in watching the signs. This Disaster Websiteis BOMB. Visit this website Daily to be up to date on all world disasters. Bet ya didn’t know Ohio had a nuclear incident this week.

 Sadly, if Yellowstone blows, I don’t think we’ll get much more warning than we have already seen. Start adding that extra stuff to your shopping cart, all those on the east.  If it explodes, there will be a rush at the stores. Start now. And the west … have you prepped your bug out bag?

With the recent Yellowstone activity, Earthquake in LA, increase in Nevada and California quakes, Mudslides in Washington – I’m beginning to wonder if future generations won’t be reading ‘How the West was won’ but rather ‘How the West was Done.”